2004 : Technology
Boom Redux
FROM PUBLISHING TRENDS (JANUARY
2005)
Last
week’s news about Google closing
in on its goal of a global virtual library by partnering
with the likes of Oxford University
and the New York Public Library is
a good place to start with a roundup of our reporting
throughout 2004 — a year that felt much like the
early 1990s, before people’s faith in technology
had been challenged — or worse. Having learned
their lesson, perhaps investors and developers think
they can enter new technology partnerships and forays
without bursting any more bubbles. And however traditional
and pragmatic, the publishing industry once again hears
technology’s siren song. Consider Penguin’s
addition of that familiar shopping cart icon to its
website, much to the dismay of many booksellers who
thought the publisher — ecce Random — was
trying to remove them from the book-to-market equation
(PT, May ’04). Remember the many autographed
copies of Bill Clinton’s My Life,
which were up for bid on eBay even
before the book hit store shelves — putting book
pricing in the hands of the consumer (July ’04).
If you need any more examples of how publishing has
embraced technology (and vice versa), tune into 163
on SM Satellite Radio for its Sonic
Theater programming that includes audio versions of
everything from classics of the Western canon to Louis
L’Amour’s classic Westerns (April
’04). Publishers may hate to love some of these
so-called advancements, but they also don’t want
to be the only ones sitting on the bench.
One of our
biggest stories of 2004 — and one The New
York Times picked up — was how the Internet
has (depending on who you talk to) either empowered
the used-book retailer or devalued the new book market
(July ’04). Thanks to Amazon’s
handy listing of used copies when a shopper searches
for a book title — not to mention its prompting
of buyers to resell what they have purchased on the
site — Americans are developing a taste for used
books. During a nine-month period in 2003, used books
accounted for about 14% of general trade books purchased,
according to Ipsos BookTrends. And, Forrester Research
estimates that online used book sales could double,
to $2 billion by 2007. Though some argue that tracking
used book sales is nearly impossible, most agree that
book publishers need to figure out some way to both
track and address the problem.
On the brighter
side, our April feature, “iPod Nation,”
told of how the ubiquitous MP3 player has drawn many
music fans to downloadable audiobooks at such sites
as iTunes and Audible.com.
Audible expects a 2004 total revenue in the range of
$33 million to $34 million, which would represent a
revenue growth rate of 71% to 76% over the $19.3 million
total revenue reported in 2003. It reported close to
109,000 new users for the first three quarters of 2004,
and this number continues to increase, according to
the company. Audio Publishers Association
President and Publisher of Audio Renaissance,
Mary Beth Roche, said some publishers
completely understand the potential of audiobooks, while
others still don’t get it. “The big thing
that we need to stress to our publishers is that the
audiobook consumer is the most avid book reader.”
It’s no longer just for those with poor eyesight
or long commutes. As proof: Many libraries are already
offering digital downloads of books, and many others
are in the process of adopting this format.
When we began
our investigation into the current state of university
presses and their distribution models (August ’04),
it soon became obvious that this was going to be yet
another technology-related story. We learned that budget-strapped
university presses increasingly are banding together
to cut distribution costs and fend off obsolescence;
and in many cases this means embarking on joint ventures
to digitize content (for short-run offset printing and
print on demand) and distribute it electronically. As
one example, the University of Chicago’s
digital BiblioVault is on schedule
to hold 12,000 titles from about 40 presses by June
2005. (You didn’t think Google thought of it first,
did you?) And, the university presses aren’t immune
to consolidation. “There is a gradual trend for
the smaller presses to get a larger press to distribute
for them,” said AAUP Executive
Director Peter Givler.
To Read or Not to Read
Moving away
from technology, our other noteworthy trend of the year
also affects the bottom line. Publishers’ reliance
on Asia for outsourcing is not new, but China’s
role in publishing is certainly growing beyond that.
In the fall, we reported that the Beijing International
Bookfair illustrated that the Chinese market
for English-language books has finally shaken off the
shackles of the state-run supply chain (October ’04).
What does a population of 1.3 billion, well-educated
people in a booming economy need? More books. UK book
exports to China rose 45% in February 2003, according
to Ian Taylor, former international
head of the UK Publishers Association.
Yet, somehow, US publishers are reluctant to jump on
this golden opportunity. (See Trendspotting, p. 1.)
Then, in November,
we took an in-depth look at how the amount of four-color
illustrated books printed in Asia (this number has ballooned
from about two-thirds of the category to about 99% in
recent years), coupled with increased traffic, as well
as hightened security at U.S. ports, almost made this
holiday season a dreary one for many children’s
and art book publishers. If you were lucky, your freight
forwarder gave you advance warnings of July’s
increased custom regulations; but in the end, everyone
learned they had to add between two to four weeks to
their delivery schedules.
And no discussion
of this year in publishing can exclude mention of the
NEA’s rather bleak “Reading
at Risk” survey (August ’04). The report
showed the number of people who read recreationally
is dropping across the age groups, but especially among
young people. In a conversation with PT, NEA
Chairman Dana Gioia said people need
to stop pointing fingers and look inward: “If
people want to know how to solve the problem, they should
look in the mirror.” As vague as that may sound,
you should ask yourself, is there anything you could
be doing differently?
All of
the aforementioned articles are available on our website,
www.publishingtrends.com,
or subscribers may contact us for copies of any story
missing from their own archives.
©2005
Publishing Trends
