In the waning days of October, Publishing Trends paid a nostalgia-filled visit to Chicago’s McCormick place, this time to the 84th Annual Direct Marketing Association conference to see how another troubled industry deals with adversity. Next to the direct response business — buffeted by ever-increasing postal rates and regulations, an economy in the doldrums and now, anthrax — trade publishing is a problem-free, booming business. But ask publishers in the direct mail industry how they’re faring, and the full impact of what Bob Wientzen, President of the DMA, called the Post Office’s annus horribilis, will be clear.
Signaling the true extent of the devastation, officials are not even pretending it’s business as usual. Several seminars were added to roster at the last moment, including “Direct Marketing in Adverse Circumstances: Gaining Consumer Trust in Your Mail,” conducted by a postal inspector, and another USPS session with the unfortunate title, “Direct Mail: Hit your target every time.” The NY Daily News’ Phyllis Furman reported estimates of as much as $7 billion in lost transactions by the end of this year, because of 9/11 and specifically the anthrax scare. According to Media Buyer’s Daily, that number could rise to $20 billion over the course of a full year.
In his opening remarks at DMA, President Wientzen quoted an industry poll which found that 20% of consumers are “less inclined” to open their mail, though he claimed the impact so far has been “negligible.” Including direct and interactive marketing, sales in the US exceeded $1.7 trillion in 2000, including $110 billion in catalog sales and $28 billion in sales generated by the Internet. And some are pointing to a surge of interest in email-based marketing in this time of postal panic (see article below). Still, the mood at the convention was wary, with no official estimates on turnout. The DMA offered prospective registrants free air fare or Amtrak tickets, but even with that, some estimate that at most, half the projected attendance will have come this year. (Last year 13,000 attendees showed up in New Orleans.)
Those who did find their way to the exhibition hall also found George Bush père at the podium, giving the keynote address on Monday morning. Greeted by cheers and standing ovations loud enough to suggest a roomful of staunch and newly converted Republicans, a well-prepped Bush was bullish on the industry, noting that “I’m a strong believer in the work of the DMA,” and telling the crowd, “I’m married to a black belt shopper.” He also contributed some of the most amusing remarks of the show, as when he claimed that mum was the word on any political pronouncements, because his sons George and Jeb “don’t need that grief, and neither do I.” He admitted that the press had been treating George better than he himself had been treated, “And oh my golly, how I hope they stay with him.” The elder Bush, however, was happily turning the tables: “Now, if I don’t like your question, to hell with you.” That brought the house down.
Elsewhere, the agenda was solidly focused on business, with the Internet an obvious topic of interest. According to the DMA’s State of the Catalog/Interactive Industry Report 2001, which was released at the show (it’s $595 for DMA members), the Internet generated 13 percent of all catalog sales in 2000, almost a 50% increase from a year earlier. Seventy-two percent of catalogers said that greater visibility was the top benefit received from the web, and half of survey respondents reported new business opportunities. In perhaps the best news of the show, 70% of catalogers claimed the Internet even bumped up their revenues.
