Last week’s news about Google closing in on its goal of a global virtual library by partnering with the likes of Oxford University and the New York Public Library is a good place to start with a roundup of our reporting throughout 2004 — a year that felt much like the early 1990s, before people’s faith in technology had been challenged — or worse. Having learned their lesson, perhaps investors and developers think they can enter new technology partnerships and forays without bursting any more bubbles. And however traditional and pragmatic, the publishing industry once again hears technology’s siren song. Consider Penguin’s addition of that familiar shopping cart icon to its website, much to the dismay of many booksellers who thought the publisher — ecce Random — was trying to remove them from the book-to-market equation (PT, May ’04). Remember the many autographed copies of Bill Clinton’s My Life, which were up for bid on eBay even before the book hit store shelves — putting book pricing in the hands of the consumer (July ’04). If you need any more examples of how publishing has embraced technology (and vice versa), tune into 163 on SM Satellite Radio for its Sonic Theater programming that includes audio versions of everything from classics of the Western canon to Louis L’Amour’s classic Westerns (April ’04). Publishers may hate to love some of these so-called advancements, but they also don’t want to be the only ones sitting on the bench.
One of our biggest stories of 2004 — and one The New York Times picked up — was how the Internet has (depending on who you talk to) either empowered the used-book retailer or devalued the new book market (July ’04). Thanks to Amazon’s handy listing of used copies when a shopper searches for a book title — not to mention its prompting of buyers to resell what they have purchased on the site — Americans are developing a taste for used books. During a nine-month period in 2003, used books accounted for about 14% of general trade books purchased, according to Ipsos BookTrends. And, Forrester Research estimates that online used book sales could double, to $2 billion by 2007. Though some argue that tracking used book sales is nearly impossible, most agree that book publishers need to figure out some way to both track and address the problem.
On the brighter side, our April feature, “iPod Nation,” told of how the ubiquitous MP3 player has drawn many music fans to downloadable audiobooks at such sites as iTunes and Audible.com. Audible expects a 2004 total revenue in the range of $33 million to $34 million, which would represent a revenue growth rate of 71% to 76% over the $19.3 million total revenue reported in 2003. It reported close to 109,000 new users for the first three quarters of 2004, and this number continues to increase, according to the company. Audio Publishers Association President and Publisher of Audio Renaissance, Mary Beth Roche, said some publishers completely understand the potential of audiobooks, while others still don’t get it. “The big thing that we need to stress to our publishers is that the audiobook consumer is the most avid book reader.” It’s no longer just for those with poor eyesight or long commutes. As proof: Many libraries are already offering digital downloads of books, and many others are in the process of adopting this format.
When we began our investigation into the current state of university presses and their distribution models (August ’04), it soon became obvious that this was going to be yet another technology-related story. We learned that budget-strapped university presses increasingly are banding together to cut distribution costs and fend off obsolescence; and in many cases this means embarking on joint ventures to digitize content (for short-run offset printing and print on demand) and distribute it electronically. As one example, the University of Chicago’s digital BiblioVault is on schedule to hold 12,000 titles from about 40 presses by June 2005. (You didn’t think Google thought of it first, did you?) And, the university presses aren’t immune to consolidation. “There is a gradual trend for the smaller presses to get a larger press to distribute for them,” said AAUP Executive Director Peter Givler.
To Read or Not to Read
Moving away from technology, our other noteworthy trend of the year also affects the bottom line. Publishers’ reliance on Asia for outsourcing is not new, but China’s role in publishing is certainly growing beyond that. In the fall, we reported that the Beijing International Bookfair illustrated that the Chinese market for English-language books has finally shaken off the shackles of the state-run supply chain (October ’04). What does a population of 1.3 billion, well-educated people in a booming economy need? More books. UK book exports to China rose 45% in February 2003, according to Ian Taylor, former international head of the UK Publishers Association. Yet, somehow, US publishers are reluctant to jump on this golden opportunity. (See Trendspotting, p. 1.)
Then, in November, we took an in-depth look at how the amount of four-color illustrated books printed in Asia (this number has ballooned from about two-thirds of the category to about 99% in recent years), coupled with increased traffic, as well as hightened security at U.S. ports, almost made this holiday season a dreary one for many children’s and art book publishers. If you were lucky, your freight forwarder gave you advance warnings of July’s increased custom regulations; but in the end, everyone learned they had to add between two to four weeks to their delivery schedules.
And no discussion of this year in publishing can exclude mention of the NEA’s rather bleak “Reading at Risk” survey (August ’04). The report showed the number of people who read recreationally is dropping across the age groups, but especially among young people. In a conversation with PT, NEA Chairman Dana Gioia said people need to stop pointing fingers and look inward: “If people want to know how to solve the problem, they should look in the mirror.” As vague as that may sound, you should ask yourself, is there anything you could be doing differently?
